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| Farabundo Martí National Liberation Front (Photo credit: Wikipedia) |
Donald Lee Suchitoto, El Salvador 7 february 2014
english edition – february.2014
SALSOL Observer
english edition – february.2014
The Numbers
Some say it is not impossible that ARENA could find the strength
to recover from the defeat which it suffered on February 2, put it is very
unlikely. At the national level, the tri-color party finished 10 points behind
the FMLN which fell short by just one percentage point of the threshold for a definitive
victory – 50 percent plus one vote. The rejection of Norman Quijano and what he
represents is expressed at other levels and in other dimensions. Of the 14
departments in the nation’s territory, ARENA lost 13. Of the 262
municipalities, the party accustomed to power won only 74.
In the moment, the analysts
and spokespersons for the defeated party preferred to blame abstentions, but in
fact, it was the UNIDAD coalition and its candidate Antonio Saca that weakened
the ARENA vote. Although it is true that
the percentage of electors that exercised their right fell by comparison with
the results of the presidential round of the year 2009, the drop results from
the good work of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal and the National Register of
Natural Persons, by which they registered 728,628 more eligible votes than for
the elections of the year 2009.
Looking directly at
the numbers and not the percentages, the total of valid votes in this first
round of 2014 was 29,684 more than the total of valid votes for the second round
of 2009. In 2014, more participated, not less. The phenomenon of abstentions is
a ghost invented by the ARENA leadership who prefer not to recognize reality. The
votes by which ARENA fell short went to Tony Saca. In this most recent vote,
Saca and his UNIDAD of three parties won 305,294. ARENA lost 245,313 compared
to its result in the second round of 2009.
The numbers do not rule out that a fraction of
the weakness of ARENA is owed to abstentions. This tendency – of ARENA
supporters that cannot stomach supporting their own party – is alive, and even
has its expression in the United for El Salvador caucus which holds five seats
in the Legislative Assembly. But it is clear that abstentions were not the
principal cause for ARENA’s defeat.
We can also observe that the candidates of the FMLN were
affected by the combo of UNIDAD and abstentions, but not in the same measure.
Of the 1,354,000 votes won with Mauricio Funes in 2009, 48,538 are missing from
the total of votes in their favor in the first round of 2014 – the total of 1,305,462.
And so, where do we stand?
In order to
understand well the meaning of the numbers, we need to remind ourselves that,
in the second round of 2009, ARENA enjoyed the support of the three parties
which today constitute UNIDAD – the PDC, the PCN, and even GANA – the Great
Alliance for National Unity – which had not separated from ARENA in that
moment. It is worth noting that GANA holds 11 of the 84 seats in the
Legislative Assembly. The PCN holds 7 and the PDC just one. We also add in that GANA suffered most from
the verbal poison of Quijano and the other leaders of ARENA. They were accused
of being traitors to the cause and allies of communism, and repeatedly each
time they collaborated with the FMLN’s caucus in the Assembly. Today the
leadership of ARENA recognizes that it has to change the cassette, but it is too
late.
There is no reason to doubt that ARENA can count on the
support of the greater portion of PCN loyalists, of the country’s historic
party on the right. But it is impossible to imagine that one hundred percent of
the base of GANA could forget the accumulated differences of the past 4 years
and with that confide in ARENA being able to change. If the new right wants to contain the
corruption of the old right, it has not options except to support Salvador
Sánchez Ceren and Oscar Ortiz. The FMLN wins the second round with just
one-fifth of GANA’s base coming to the same conclusion. Furthermore, it is
natural to imagine that there will be more abstentions amongst disappointed
ARENA supporters in the second round. Now that the result is clear, why not
increase the punishment to the defeated party by resting at home.
There will be consequences of a clear FMLN victory ARENA is a party which imagines itself the
owner of the country, capable of protecting its key elements from whatever persecution
or prosecution for their misdemeanours. From the culture of power and the
tradition of impunity comes the arrogant tone of their candidate and the
high-handedness of their most visible leaders. ARENA is the garantor of
impunity. But the woven protective cloak
is fraying and the web of crossbred relations is coming out into the open. Even
those protected are transformed into “inside sources” for the proof of corruption
and the violation of the nation’s dignity. In those last days of the campaign
it was made clear that the spider’s web comes very close to the candidate
Quijano. And with that the honourable right feels disappointed and ashamed.
The
most notorious example is the case of ex-president for ARENA, Francisco Flores,
who resigned as campaign director on the Friday before the Sunday vote, accused
of diverting several million in gifts from Taiwan to his own accounts, during
his period of government, 1999-2004. On the day of writing these observations,
he remains in hiding and all his property is sequestered by order of the
Attorney General for the Republic. This stain on the pride of ARENA cannot be
removed in four weeks not even with the most advanced chemicals.
Should ARENA loose
power and decidedly on March 9, it is certain that the fattest of the corrupt
will confront legal prosecution with no truce. The space will be opened to continue
purging the structures of justice system. It will become possible to fence-in
the most powerful elements of drug-trafficking – the authors of the violence
which imposes the system of extortions.
A political chapter
will be opened in which we can talk about a new concept of nation – inclusive
and equitable, in which progress is for everyone. We will be granted the option
of talking about the realities of the civil war, acknowledging crimes against
humanity, pardoning the guilty, and building a national unity.
A new era is opening
up. A new El Salvador is being born.
A definitive victory for the Farabundo
Martí Front for National Liberation – the FMLN – is unavoidable.
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